Inga Heiland

I am an associate professor in the Economics Department at NTNU and associated researcher at the University of Oslo. My research interests include topics in international trade, international investment, migration, and economic networks. I am an associate editor for the Review of World Economics.


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Global Risk Sharing Through Trade in Goods and Assets: Theory and Evidence

I develop a general equilibrium trade model, with risk-averse investors and international capital flows, to show that the correlation pattern of demand shocks across countries constitutes a motive for goods trade that persists even if financial markets are complete. I estimate the risk-augmented gravity equation implied by the model and find support for the prediction that, conditional on trade costs and market size, exporters sell smaller quantities to countries whose shocks contribute more to aggregate volatility. A counterfactual analysis shows that the risk-diversification motive accounts for 7.5% of global trade. Country-level exports would grow by -19% to +9% if all diversification opportunities were eliminated, entailing welfare losses in the range of .3% to 16%. [CEPR Discussion Paper No. 14230] [Latest version] Reject&Resubmit Journal of International Economics.

Trade From Space: Shipping Networks and The Global Implications of Local Shocks, with A. Moxnes, K. H. Ulltveit-Moe, and Y. Zi

[VoxEU][CEPR Discussion Paper No. 14193][Latest version] Revise&Resubmit Review of Economics and Statistics.

Frictions to Intranational Investment, with J. Hinz

Ultimate Ownership Networks and Markups


Quantifying the Partial and General Equilibrium Effects of Sanctions on Russia, with L. Flach, M. Larch, M. Steininger, and F. Teti

Review of International Economics, 1-43(2023). [Link]

Complex Europe: Quantifying the Cost of Disintegration, with G. Felbermayr and J. Groeschl

Journal of International Economics, 138(2022)-103647. [Link][Data and code][Preprint][VoxEU] A previous version of this paper circulated under the title "Undoing Europe in a New Quantitative Trade Model."

Heterogeneous Workers, Trade, and Migration, with W. Kohler

European Economic Review, Volume 144-104077(2022). [Link][Data and code][CESifo Working Paper No. 7355, 2018]

Export Market Risk and the Role of State Credit Guarantees, with E. Yalcin

International Economics and Economic Policy, 25–72(2021). [CESifo Working Paper No. 5176, 2015]

Where is the Value Added? Trade Liberalization and Production Networks, with R. Aichele

Journal of International Economics, 115, 2018, 130-144. [Preprint][Online appendix] [Data and code]

TTIP and Intra-European Trade: Boon or Bane?, with R. Aichele and G. Felbermayr

Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik / Journal of Economics and Statistics, 236(6), 2016, 639–664. [ifo Working Paper No. 220, 2016]


Cumulative COVID-19 restrictions and the global maritime network, with K.H. Ulltveit-Moe

in Baldwin, R. E. and S. J. Evenett (eds), Revitalising Multilateralism: Pragmatic Ideas for the New WTO Director-General, a eBook, CEPR Press, 2020. [Link]

An unintended crisis in sea transportation due to COVID-19 restrictions, with K.H. Ulltveit-Moe

in Baldwin, R. E. and S. J. Evenett (eds), COVID-19 and Trade Policy: Why Turning Inward Won’t Work, a eBook, CEPR Press, 2020. [Link to eBook] [VoxEU] Media coverage: []

Five Essays on International Trade, Factor Flows, and the Gains from Globalization

ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung 74, ifo Institute, 2017. [PDF]


Discussion of:  Sanctions on Russia (by J. Imbs and L. Pauwels[Economic Policy, Volume 39, Issue 117, January 2024, Pages 201–202]

Discussion of: EU exit and UK trade (by M. Gasiorek and N. Tamberi)  [Economic Policy, Volume 38, Issue 116, March 2024, Pages 765 - 766]

Trade And Welfare Effects of the WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement, with C. Beverelli, I. Gourevich, A. Keck, M. Larch, and Y. Yotov [WTO Staff Working Paper ERSD-2023-04]

Discussion of: Teacher bias (by M. A. De Benedetto and M. De Paola)  [Economic Policy, Volume 38, Issue 113, January 2023, Pages 157 - 158]

Handelsbeziehungen zwischen der Schweiz und der EU: Quantitative Bewertung unterschiedlicher Szenarien der zukünftigen Zusammenarbeit with G. Felbermayr, M. Mosler, C. Schaltegger [IfW Expert Report, March 2023]

Vulnerabilität des Welthandels und der Lieferketten. In [ Risiko Bild 2023: Krieg um Europa, Jan 2023]

Die (Handels-)Kosten einer Nicht-EU with G. Felbermayr, J. Groeschl, J. Stehn [Kiel Policy Briefs, 125, 2019]

Going Deep: The Trade and Welfare Effects of TTIP Revised, with R. Aichele and G. Felbermayr [ifo Working Paper No. 219, 2016] This paper updates the results presented in Going Deep: The Trade and Welfare Effects of TTIP. [CESifo Working Paper No. 5150, 2014]

EEG und internationaler Wettbewerb: Ist die besondere Ausgleichsregelung haltbar?, with R. Aichele, G. Felbermayr [ifo Schnelldienst 67(02), 2014]

The Role of State Export Credit Guarantees for German Firms, with G. Felbermayr, E. Yalcin [CESifo Forum 15(3), 2014]

Der Wertschöpfungsgehalt des Aussenhandels: Neue Daten, neue Perspektiven with R. Aichele, G. Felbermayr [ifo Schnelldienst 66(05), 2013]

Neues von der Basarökonomie with R. Aichele, G. Felbermayr [ifo Schnelldienst 66(06), 2013]

Mitigating Liquidity Constraints: Public Export Credit Guarantees in Germany, with G. Felbermayr and E. Yalcin [CESifo Working Paper No. 3908, 2012]

Beschäftigungseffekte der Exportkreditgarantien der Bundesrepublik Deutschland ("Hermesdeckungen") with G. Felbermayr, E. Yalcin [ifo Schnelldienst 65(01), 2012]