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I am an associate professor in the Economics Department at NTNU and associated researcher at the University of Oslo. My research interests include topics in international trade, international investment, migration, and economic networks. I am an associate editor for the Review of World Economics.
WORK IN PROGRESS
Global Risk Sharing Through Trade in Goods and Assets: Theory and Evidence
I develop a general equilibrium trade model, with risk-averse investors and international capital flows, to show that the correlation pattern of demand shocks across countries constitutes a motive for goods trade that persists even if financial markets are complete. I estimate the risk-augmented gravity equation implied by the model and find support for the prediction that, conditional on trade costs and market size, exporters sell smaller quantities to countries whose shocks contribute more to aggregate volatility. A counterfactual analysis shows that the risk-diversification motive accounts for 7.5% of global trade. Country-level exports would grow by -19% to +9% if all diversification opportunities were eliminated, entailing welfare losses in the range of .3% to 16%. [CEPR Discussion Paper No. 14230] [Latest version] Reject&Resubmit Journal of International Economics.
Vertical Integration with Two-sided Heterogeneity and Firm-to-Firm Network Structure of Production, with Y. Saito [RIETI Discussion Paper Series 25-E-0361480]
Frictions to Intranational Investment, with J. Hinz
Analyzing the expiration of the United States Generalized System of Preferences and its impact on imports from developing countries, with M. Fossum and V. Moulin [CESifo Working Paper No. 11509]
Estimating Gravity Equations for Trade in Value Added: A Structural Perspective, with P. Svab [CESifo Working Paper No. 11480]
PUBLICATIONS IN ACADEMIC JOURNALS
Common ownership and competition: Evidence from ultimate owners of private and public firms
Accepted by The Review of Corporate Finance Studies. [CEPR Discussion Paper No. 19662] [Latest version]
Trade From Space: Shipping Networks and The Global Implications of Local Shocks, with A. Moxnes, K. H. Ulltveit-Moe, and Y. Zi
Accepted by The Review of Economics and Statistics. [VoxEU][CEPR Discussion Paper No. 14193][Latest version]
Quantifying the Partial and General Equilibrium Effects of Sanctions on Russia, with L. Flach, M. Larch, M. Steininger, and F. Teti
Review of International Economics, 1-43(2023). [Link]
Complex Europe: Quantifying the Cost of Disintegration, with G. Felbermayr and J. Groeschl
Journal of International Economics, 138(2022)-103647. [Link][Data and code][Preprint][VoxEU] A previous version of this paper circulated under the title "Undoing Europe in a New Quantitative Trade Model."
Heterogeneous Workers, Trade, and Migration, with W. Kohler
European Economic Review, Volume 144-104077(2022). [Link][Data and code][CESifo Working Paper No. 7355, 2018]
Export Market Risk and the Role of State Credit Guarantees, with E. Yalcin
International Economics and Economic Policy, 25–72(2021). [CESifo Working Paper No. 5176, 2015]
Where is the Value Added? Trade Liberalization and Production Networks, with R. Aichele
Journal of International Economics, 115, 2018, 130-144. [Preprint][Online appendix] [Data and code]
TTIP and Intra-European Trade: Boon or Bane?, with R. Aichele and G. Felbermayr
Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik / Journal of Economics and Statistics, 236(6), 2016, 639–664. [ifo Working Paper No. 220, 2016]
BOOKS & CHAPTERS
Cumulative COVID-19 restrictions and the global maritime network, with K.H. Ulltveit-Moe
in Baldwin, R. E. and S. J. Evenett (eds), Revitalising Multilateralism: Pragmatic Ideas for the New WTO Director-General, a VoxEU.org eBook, CEPR Press, 2020. [Link]
An unintended crisis in sea transportation due to COVID-19 restrictions, with K.H. Ulltveit-Moe
in Baldwin, R. E. and S. J. Evenett (eds), COVID-19 and Trade Policy: Why Turning Inward Won’t Work, a VoxEU.org eBook, CEPR Press, 2020. [Link to eBook] [VoxEU] Media coverage: [Finansavisen.no]
Five Essays on International Trade, Factor Flows, and the Gains from Globalization
ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung 74, ifo Institute, 2017. [PDF]
OTHER WRITINGS
Discussion of: Sanctions on Russia (by J. Imbs and L. Pauwels) [Economic Policy, Volume 39, Issue 117, January 2024, Pages 201–202]
Discussion of: EU exit and UK trade (by M. Gasiorek and N. Tamberi) [Economic Policy, Volume 38, Issue 116, March 2024, Pages 765 - 766]
Trade And Welfare Effects of the WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement, with C. Beverelli, I. Gourevich, A. Keck, M. Larch, and Y. Yotov [WTO Staff Working Paper ERSD-2023-04]
Discussion of: Teacher bias (by M. A. De Benedetto and M. De Paola) [Economic Policy, Volume 38, Issue 113, January 2023, Pages 157 - 158]
Handelsbeziehungen zwischen der Schweiz und der EU: Quantitative Bewertung unterschiedlicher Szenarien der zukünftigen Zusammenarbeit with G. Felbermayr, M. Mosler, C. Schaltegger [IfW Expert Report, March 2023]
Vulnerabilität des Welthandels und der Lieferketten. In [verteidigungspolitik.at Risiko Bild 2023: Krieg um Europa, Jan 2023]
Die (Handels-)Kosten einer Nicht-EU with G. Felbermayr, J. Groeschl, J. Stehn [Kiel Policy Briefs, 125, 2019]
Going Deep: The Trade and Welfare Effects of TTIP Revised, with R. Aichele and G. Felbermayr [ifo Working Paper No. 219, 2016] This paper updates the results presented in Going Deep: The Trade and Welfare Effects of TTIP. [CESifo Working Paper No. 5150, 2014]
TTIP Potential Effects on Norway (with R. Aichele, G. Felbermayr, A. Melchior, M.Steininger [ifo Working Paper No 228]
EEG und internationaler Wettbewerb: Ist die besondere Ausgleichsregelung haltbar?, with R. Aichele, G. Felbermayr [ifo Schnelldienst 67(02), 2014]
The Role of State Export Credit Guarantees for German Firms, with G. Felbermayr, E. Yalcin [CESifo Forum 15(3), 2014]
Der Wertschöpfungsgehalt des Aussenhandels: Neue Daten, neue Perspektiven with R. Aichele, G. Felbermayr [ifo Schnelldienst 66(05), 2013]
Neues von der Basarökonomie with R. Aichele, G. Felbermayr [ifo Schnelldienst 66(06), 2013]
Mitigating Liquidity Constraints: Public Export Credit Guarantees in Germany, with G. Felbermayr and E. Yalcin [CESifo Working Paper No. 3908, 2012]
Beschäftigungseffekte der Exportkreditgarantien der Bundesrepublik Deutschland ("Hermesdeckungen") with G. Felbermayr, E. Yalcin [ifo Schnelldienst 65(01), 2012]
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